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Market Commentary by TopAg.net:
(Daily Grain Prices Below)
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Date:
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9-05-08
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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"De-leveraging" was the buzz word on Friday as grains were again pummeled by speculative liquidation. Although corn & wheat stabilized near their overnight losses, soybeans worked to new lows on ideas Thursday's rainfall sustained Corn Belt yields. Traders mostly ignored a weekly export sales report that was in line with trade guesses, & larger-than-expected production estimates by Informa Economics. Dec corn futures lost 16c, Nov beans collapsed 58c, & Dec CBOT wheat dropped 25.5c today.
Overall, it was a tough week for commodities. Rumors circulated that hedge funds were liquidating positions in a variety of markets in order to generate cash for investors who have asked for their money back. This week's 6.1% plunge in the CRB commodity index to its lowest Friday close since Feb 7, & the US dollar's 1.94% rise to its highest weekly close since Sept 14, 2007 lends credence to that view. (One of the favorite hedge fund trades from last fall into mid-summer had been "Buy commodities/Sell the dollar.") Today's Commitments of Traders data showed more grain position liquidation by both index traders & "non-commercial" speculative traders in the latest week, also supporting the "get-me-out" theory. Nearby corn futures settled on Friday at a 3-week low--36.75c lower for the week. Nearby soybeans closed at their lowest level since Dec 21--crashing $1.52 for the week. Nearby wheat futures ended at their lowest weekly close since Aug 24, 2007--down 49.5c from last Friday.
Basis levels were stable on Friday, but corn & soybean basis improved solidly from last Friday. For the week, nearby cash corn declined 21c, spot beans dropped $1.23, & nearby wheat lost 53c. For those who can store & defer income into 2009, be aware that our wheat prices currently show a 72c carry into January.
Want to know more? Dave Marshall will be reviewing the markets and his outlook for 2009 at the Madison County Farm Bureau, 900 Hillsboro Ave in Edwardsville, IL on Tuesday, Sept 9 at 7:30 am. Admission is free. Hope to see you there!
Questions? Comments? Let us know what you think! Contact Scott, Mike, or Seth for all your grain needs, & your local Top Ag location for your crop & livestock supplies.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. Want to know more about his services? He can be reached at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or by telephone at (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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Your Daily Grain Prices for : 9-5-08
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COMMODITY
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CASH PRICE
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NEW CROP/OCT
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JANUARY 2009
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| Wheat: |
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ADDIEVILLE
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$ 4.91
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$ x.xx
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$ 5.63
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MASCOUTAH
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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OKAWVILLE
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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PIERRON
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
|
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ST. LIBORY
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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TRENTON
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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| Corn: |
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ADDIEVILLE
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$ 4.89
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$ 4.80
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$ 5.09
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OKAWVILLE
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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PIERRON
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same as above
|
same as above
|
same as above
|
|
ST. LIBORY
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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TRENTON
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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| Soybeans: |
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ADDIEVILLE
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$ 11.05
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$ 10.85
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$ 11.25
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OKAWVILLE
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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PIERRON
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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ST. LIBORY
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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TRENTON
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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PRICES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. Call Scott, Mike or Seth for bids on grain picked up at your bins or hauled Direct to one of the River Terminals.
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