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Market Commentary by TopAg.net: (Daily Grain Prices Below)
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Date:
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Feb. 5, 2010
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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With a freefall in Europe's Euro currency weighing on world financial market sentiment, grain futures fought to stave off the bears on Friday. For much of the trading day, US equities were 1% lower, crude oil was about 3% lower, & the US dollar traded at 7-month highs. Grains briefly traded higher early in the session, but then followed outside markets lower--the path of least resistance. When crude oil started to rebound late in the noon hour, grains also mounted a late session rally that resulted in mid-range, modest losses. March corn futures & March CBOT wheat each settled 2.5c lower & March beans dropped 1/2c on Friday. Downward momentum slowed this week, but corn & wheat still managed a fourth straight weekly loss & soybeans & soymeal declined for a fifth consecutive week. Compared to last Friday, March corn declined 5c, March beans lost 1/2c, & March wheat edged 3/4c lower.
With demand news slim, grains were hostage to movements in other markets. This morning's Labor Dept. survey of businesses indicated 20,000 US jobs were lost in January. Although analysts had expected a 5,000 job gain, the results were still a dramatic improvement over the 779,000 jobs lost in January, 2009. The agency also reported their survey of households indicated the US unemployment rate dropped by 0.3% to 9.7%. That second survey "found" an extra 541,000 of employed workers, hinting non-surveyed small businesses are adding jobs. The department also sharply increased to 8.4 million-up 1.2 million--its estimate of the number of jobs that have been lost since the Great Recession began in December 2007. A small increase in the average work week & hourly wages & increased hiring of temporary workers suggest that job growth will pick up in 2010. As the general economy strengthens, demand for grain & meat should improve, too. Stock markets mounted a furious rally after the CBOT closed, boding well for the resumption of grain e-trade on Sunday night.
Ahead of Tuesday's USDA reports, grains markets are challenging support levels. That support needs to hold to prevent another step down on the charts.
Basis levels were 1/2c lower in corn & wheat this afternoon & 1.5c weaker in soybeans. Farmers in both North & South America have sold very little grain since Jan 12th. The need to generate cash flow over the next 45 days is building. When that circumstance is present & grain supplies are ample, rallies tend to be brief. For a prolonged rally to develop, we suspect South American weather needs to soon take a dramatic turn for the worse. For the week, cash corn dropped 2c, nearby beans gained 4c, & spot wheat lost 1c.
Don't let your good crops go bad! Grain bins need to be checked regularly, aeration fans need to be run, & bins need to be cored to maximize the quality of farm-stored grain. Be sure to use proper safety precautions & equipment when checking your stored grain. For more tips on grain storage management or on-farm pick-up bids, give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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Your Daily Grain Prices for : 2/8/10
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Commodity/Location
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Cash Price
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New 2010
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Jan. 2011
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| Wheat: |
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Addieville
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$ 3.65
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$ X.xx
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X.xx
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Mascoutah
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Okawville
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Pierron
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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St. Libory
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Trenton
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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| Corn: |
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Addieville
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$ 3.41
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$ 3.36
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$ X.xx
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Okawville
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Pierron
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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St. Libory
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Trenton
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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| Soybeans: |
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Addieville
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$ 9.27
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$ 8.60
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$ X.xx
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Okawville
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Pierron
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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St. Libory
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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Trenton
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same as above
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same as above
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same as above
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PRICES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. PLEASE CONTACT SCOTT, MIKE or SETH FOR PRICE QUOTES FOR DIRECT DELIVERY TO RIVER TERMINALS or PICKED UP AT YOUR BIN or FIELD. CALL US WITH YOUR PRICING OFFERS!!!!
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