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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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1/02/09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Grain futures opened lower on the first trading day of 2009, pressured by hedging of farmer sales, strength in the US dollar, & profit-taking from Wednesday's pre-holiday rally. When crude oil continued to rebound from overnight lows, grains recovered as well to trade on both sides of unchanged. Late session gains in corn helped drag wheat to a fractional gains, but beans still closed slightly lower. Trading volume remained relatively light today with many traders waiting until Monday to return to the skirmish. March corn futures closed 5.25c higher, March soybeans declined 3c, & March CBOT wheat edged .25c higher. For the week nearby corn futures were unchanged, soybeans jumped 18c, & CBT wheat rallied 11.75c.
Were today's late gains in corn & wheat driven by a return to the grain pits by trading funds? For the past several weeks, there has been a big debate as to whether funds would commit new cash to commodities in the New Year. Remembering last year when funds helped drive grains, livestock, oil, & metals to historic levels, fundamental traders who mostly remain bearish have been reluctant to sell the recent rallies. They want to see whether funds actually commit new capital before attempting to short commodities.
Ahead of today's open, USDA reported Christmas week export sales at a marketing-year-low 10.625 mb in corn, but soybean sales of 18.816 mb & wheat sales of 15.366 mb were above trade expectations. Prior to the open, USDA also announced that China bought 4.225 mb of soybeans. By Sunday night, Argentine weather forecasts & crude oil trends should provide price direction.
Basis trends were firmer this afternoon as barge freight continued to have a weak tone. Corn basis rose 2c, bean basis improved 3c, & wheat basis firmed 1c today. With fuel & grain prices both having rebounded this week, however, the potential for higher river freight costs is increasing. For the week nearby corn rallied 14c, & spot soybeans & wheat each gained 20c.
All of us at Top Ag wish you a Safe, Prosperous, & Happy New Year!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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