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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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1-08-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Disappointing corn & wheat export trends, weak crude oil futures, & continued poor economic data weighed on grain markets at Thursday's open. Soybeans--which unlike corn or wheat had solid positive export news--quickly found support, & led grains to mid-day recovery. Prices peaked shortly before noon, & then gains mostly evaporated after mid-day weather maps continued to suggest Argentina had better chances for rain starting early next week & again by next weekend. Prices drifted back to a mostly lower close with corn showing the greatest weakness. March corn futures declined 9.75c, just a penny from its lows. March soybean settled 1/2c lower & near the middle of its 29.75c trading range. March CBOT wheat closed 3/4c lower, about 8c below its late morning high & 14.5c above its early session low.
Export news for soybeans was solid this morning. For the 3rd time in 5 days, USDA again reported a soybean sale (4.41 mb) to China. Weekly export sales of 19.463 mb of old- & .786 mb of new-crop soybeans also ranged near the top of the trade expectations as China netted 63.1% of old-crop purchases. By contrast, corn sales of 11.046 mb--a marketing year low--were near the low end of the trade's 9.8-19.7 mb guess. Weekly wheat sales of 1.54 mb--also a marketing year low--were well below estimates that ranged 7.3-18.4 mb. Thursday morning, Japan bought 3.89 mb of US wheat & .77 mb of Canadian wheat, but Egypt opted for 2.06 mb of Russian rather than US wheat. In production news the USDA ag attaché to Argentina lowered that nation's corn & wheat estimates due to drought, & Brazil's ag ministry reduced their corn & soybean forecasts. China increased the size of its corn crop, but left its soybean & wheat estimates unchanged. Crude oil, weather maps, & pre-weekend/pre-report positioning should dominate grain trade on Friday.
Barge freight jumped significantly higher on Thursday afternoon, but basis still firmed as farmer sales remained limited. January delivery corn basis gained a penny today, bean basis jumped 5c, & wheat basis gained 4c.
Be sure to check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center for pre-season seed, chemical, & fertilizer price opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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