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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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1-13-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Soybeans & wheat stabilized after Monday's post-report losses, but corn futures extended their early-week losses on Tuesday. Buoyed by dry weather in Argentina & ideas that Monday's limit-down losses were an over-reaction, March soybeans rallied in the first hour as much as 26c higher. Wheat tagged along higher on ideas that reduced US acreage & this week's cold snap will trim 2009 output & tighten up current excess supplies. Corn trimmed early losses as beans & wheat rallied. When corn couldn't fill chart down-gaps set overnight, selling pressure in corn resumed & intensified. Losses in corn eventually helped trim bean & wheat gains. Trading funds were expected to be rebalancing their commodity portfolios at mid-month, & today's choppy price action had that feel to it. March corn futures crashed 18.25c lower, March soybeans settled 5.5c higher, & March CBOT wheat edged a penny higher.
Looking ahead, weather in Argentina still looks dry this week as early corn there pollinates & up to 50% of their soybeans struggle for moisture. The National Oilseed Processors Assn whose membership includes more than 95% of the US soy crush capacity will release its December soybean crush report on Wednesday morning. Average trade guess sees NOPA crush at 140.2 mb--slightly above last month's 139.4 total. Taiwan & Japan are seeking US wheat over the next couple days.
Grain basis improved 2c this afternoon as CBOT prices toned down volatility & Midwestern farmer sales slowed to a halt. The Wednesday-Thursday deep freeze in the Midwest is expected to give way to warmer temps into the weekend--limiting river transportation problems. Seasonally, a mid-month pull-back in St Louis basis often is followed by some strength into late month. Warmer temps thereafter make basis recovery more uncertain.
Be sure to check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center for pre-season price opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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