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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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1-15-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Corn & wheat opened slightly below modest overnight losses on disappointing weekly exports data & weak outside markets, & spent most of today's trading session on either side of unchanged. Soybean futures extended overnight gains at the open this morning after weekly export sales proved dramatically higher than expectations & dry weather woes in Argentina attracted speculative buying. March corn futures settled 1.25c lower, March soybeans closed 23c higher, & March CBOT wheat settled 5.5c lower on Thursday.
Soybeans were again the market leader today. March soybean futures opened with double-digit gains & soared as much as 53.5c by mid-morning after USDA reported weekly exports sales reached 50.026 mb of old- & .099 mb of new-crop soybeans. Led by big sales China, that kept soybeans on track to reach USDA's upwardly revised export forecast from Monday. Mid-day gains accelerated after Brazilian agronomist/analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier--having just finished a 2 1/2-week crop tour from Mato Grosso to Parana--forecast a 3 mmt drop in Brazilian soybean output. Saying losses there were "irreversible," Cordonnier said he saw in Parana "some of the worst soybeans I have ever seen in Brazil." Corn & wheat came off their lows as beans rallied, but couldn't hold gains when beans halved its highs. With export sales of corn at a new marketing year low of just 8.507 mb last week, & Feb crude oil futures nearly 11% lower to new contract lows at mid-morning, corn rallies stayed subdued despite ongoing forecasts for stressful Argentine weather. Despite shivering temperatures in the Midwest & a 2 mb morning sale of wheat to Egypt, wheat succumbed to sluggish weekly crop export sales of just 3.226 mb of old- & 2.939 mb of new-crop wheat. Soft red winter wheat saw a net reduction of 3.56 mb last week on cancellations by Egypt & unknown destinations.
Cold temps continue to impact January shipment barge freight, & January delivery basis levels retreated on corn by 2c & 3c on soybeans this afternoon. Wheat--whose basis continues to track near historic lows for mid-January-- bucked the downtrend & improved 2c today. Wheat bids for June delivery remain dramatically better than nearby prices, returning strong returns to hedge storage.
Do you still have some specialty crops available for sale? Give Mike Fuhler a call at 224-7322 at the Trenton elevator as soon as possible. As you make plans for spring cropping season, check with us for upcoming pre-season price opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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