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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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01-28-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Grain futures were lower overnight & early trading this morning, but found little downside follow-thru when crude oil & New York stocks rebounded & wet weather forecasts for Argentina remained uncertain. Grains eventually mounted a modest recovery of a portion of Tuesday's losses after prices managed to hold above overnight lows. Reports of further deterioration in Brazil & Paraguay soybean crops provided support to beans. Ongoing dryness in the US southern Plains & talk that Brazil will be looking for US or Canadian wheat boosted wheat. Corn continues to derive support on ideas US farmers will curtail plantings in favor of soybeans this spring. March corn futures settled 7c higher, March beans closed 6.5c stronger, & March CBOT wheat gained 10.5c today.
Production estimates for South America continued to ebb lower today. Ahead of the open, Brazil-based consultant Ag Rural lowered its Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 57.7 million metric tonnes--down 2.8 mmt from its December forecast--citing yield reductions from dry weather in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, & Rio Grande do Sul. In its first official yield survey of the year, Paraguay said drought would reduce its soy production to just 3.8 mmt--3 mmt below last year. Recent private estimates of the Argentine soy crop have ranged 36.6-47 mmt. In its Jan 12th World Soybean Supply/Demand report, USDA pegged soy output at 59 mmt in Brazil, 49.5 mmt in Argentina, & 5.6 mmt in Paraguay. Looking ahead to Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its December soybean crush report & USDA will report last week's export sales.
Trade analysts expect crush at 141.0 mb--22.9 mb below last year. Analysts expect weekly corn export sales at 13.8-35.4 mb, bean sales at 18.4-33.1 mb, & wheat sales at 11.0-18.4 mb.
Mirroring unchanged barge freight costs, basis levels were steady today. As roads clear & temps warm, look for transportation to soon return to normal.
Be sure to check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center for pre-season price opportunities as you work on spring planting plans. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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