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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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1-30-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Grains opened in line with mostly lower overnight trends this morning, mirroring weakness in outside markets. Energy, industrial metals, & New York stocks were generally weaker after the Commerce Dept reported that US Gross Domestic Product--the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity--declined 3.8% in Oct-December to its worst quarterly performance since the 1981-82 recession. When crude oil rallied from its lows, grains also rebounded, setting session highs shortly before 11 am. While the need for more Argentine rainfall supported grains today, the promise for some relief there by Tuesday kept rallies in check. End-month & pre-weekend positioning eventually weighed on grains in the last half hour, sending corn & wheat to session lows late in the session. March corn futures settled 2.75c lower. March soybeans closed with mid-range gains of 9.5c. March CBOT wheat settled 10c weaker. Compared to last Friday, March corn lost 11.5c--its 4th straight weekly loss. Weekly bean prices declined 29c--its third consecutive down week. Nearby wheat dropped 14.75c from last Friday.
In demand news today, Japan bought 8.40 mb of US corn & Egypt booked 2.20 mb of US soft red winter wheat & 4.41 mb of French wheat. November US ethanol output was reported just 3% above last year at 842 million gallons. After the close, reports said Renew Energy of Jefferson, WI was filing for bankruptcy protection for its 130 mil gallon/year facility--the latest victim to low ethanol crush margins. Plant closures since October has shrunk US ethanol production capacity by 5%.
Sunday night trade will be watchful for any change in Argentine weather maps & for signs of new investment money at the start of the month. The consensus Argentine weather forecast still sees .25" to 1.00" of rain with 50-75% coverage early next week & moderate temps thereafter. Argentine traders believe this week's rain was not enough to prevent overall crop yield deterioration.
Grain basis continued to move higher this afternoon on generally weaker barge freight & light farmer sales. Locally, corn basis jumped 8c, bean basis jumped 5c, & wheat basis gained 10c. For the week Jan delivery corn rose 7c, beans dropped 16c, & wheat rose 11c.
Call Top Ag & let us help you with timely, professional application of nitrogen on your wheat. And be sure to also check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center for pre-season seed, chemical, & fertilizer pricing opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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