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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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2-11-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Grain markets followed crude oil prices from a lower open to mixed trends at mid-morning & then to low-range losses by the close. Just as the January crop report provided little support, Feb USDA numbers--though considered neutral to friendly--have not reversed near-term negative psychology, either. Markets continue to eye crude oil prices as a measure of economic demand, & declining energy prices thereby impales other commodities on the same sword. After having traded within 2c of unchanged for much of the session, March corn futures slid late in the day to close 8.25c lower. After recovering to a 2c gain near 11 am, March soybeans sold off thereafter to settle 16c lower. Early morning fractional gains in wheat gave way to weaker trends for the balance of the session as March CBOT wheat closed 12.75c lower.
Today was "Browbeat-the-Bank-CEO Day" in Congress as executives from the 8 biggest banks testified, & were then grilled--or drubbed--by representatives. The day-long session provided more heat than light, & served once again as an anchor on markets. After the CBOT close, Congressional negotiators announced they had come to agreement on a $789 billion compromise stimulus package that is roughly in 1/3 tax cuts & 2/3 in stimulus spending & aid to cities & states for infrastructure improvements for roads, schools, & the energy grid. Stocks rebounded late in the day on the announcement.
Egypt tendered this afternoon for optional-origin wheat for mid-March shipment. Results are due ahead of Thursday's CBOT open. In tomorrow morning's weekly export sales report, traders expect USDA to announce sales of corn at 33.5-47.2 mb, beans at 14.7-29.4 mb, wheat at 7.3-22.0 mb, soymeal at 100-225,000 mt, & soyoil at 25-50,000 mt. Grains stabilized within 3 days of the Jan 12th USDA report, & then rallied. Will that be repeated in February?
Basis & futures trends again headed in opposite directions today as declining CBOT values shut-down new grain sales off the farm. Gulf basis was steady-firm today & barge freight was steady-weak, supporting basis. At least one St Louis terminal shut down early Wednesday because of poor river conditions. Locally, February deliver corn basis rose 4c & bean basis rallied 2c today.
Need assistance with top-dressing nitrogen on wheat. Give us a call & let us get your fertilizer needs applied with a minimum amount of stress to your crop. Also be sure to check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center to take advantage of pre-season price opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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