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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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2-13-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be closed Monday, Feb 16th for Presidents Day holiday.
Friday the 13th brought nothing but bad luck to the bulls. Improved prospects for good coverage rainfall in Argentina by Monday & then again late next week further doused soybean yield concerns. That sent buyers scurrying out of the market ahead of the 3-day Presidents Holiday weekend. Weakness in beans spilled over to corn & wheat, dragging them to low-range, modest losses as well. Reports that S Korea & Taiwan had bought US corn, & that Taiwan would be seeking US wheat next week helped limit their losses. March corn futures closed 3c lower today, but declined 14c for the week. March soybean dropped 13c on Friday, & lost 45.5c for the week. March CBOT wheat settled 3.25c lower on Friday, & weakened 21.5c for the week. New-crop contracts were similarly under pressure during the week as worries about demand for 2009 production continue to circulate.
Is the tone of the economic debate about to change? For the past month it has been in the political interest of the new administration to be downbeat about the US economy in order to promote passage of its massive stimulus plan. Compromise legislation that combines tax cuts, extended unemployment payments, infrastructure spending, money for alternative energy & electric grid improvements, beleaguered state budgets, education, & other spending passed the House Friday, will pass the Senate later Friday night, & be signed into law by Presidents Day. The President plans an aggressive rollout of the provisions of the legislation next week where he is also likely to begin detailing provisions for further shoring up the nation's banking system & addressing mortgage problems. Markets run on faith in the future, & confidence is the one commodity that's been in short supply. Export markets have been showing signs of improvement lately. With 85% of corn usage, 60% of soybean demand, 55% of wheat usage, & the lion's share of US meat output still tied to US consumer demand, resurgence in the domestic economy is even more important.
Barge freight sagged to near 2-year lows this afternoon as farmer sales remained extremely light. Gulf basis was mostly steady, but local corn & bean basis improved 2c & wheat basis rebounded 4c today. For the week Feb delivery corn declined 11c, beans dropped 34c, & wheat lost 6c.
Need assistance with top-dressing nitrogen on wheat? Give us a call & let us get your fertilizer needs applied with a minimum amount of stress to your crop. Also be sure to check with your local Top Ag Agronomy Center to take advantage of pre-season price opportunities. Need financing? Give Lloyd a call at 243-5293 or contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton, or Pierron.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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