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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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11-13-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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We will again be operating with extended harvest hours this weekend. Here's our schedule.
At Addieville, St Libory, & Okawville: Sat 8 am-6 pm; Sunday Noon-5 pm.
At Pierron: Sat 8 am-5 pm; Sunday Noon-5 pm.
At Trenton: Sat 8 am-5 pm; Sunday Noon-5 pm.
Trenton will be closed on Sunday if rain halts fieldwork.
Markets chopped on either side of unchanged on Friday, limited by hedge pressure & declining crude oil prices but supported by a weaker dollar. Soybeans initially led grains upward with Jan beans rallying 19c higher by 10 am after USDA reported very strong weekly export sales for soybeans (44.401 mb) & soymeal (224,300 mt). Although weekly export sales for corn (19.219 mb) & wheat (15.135 mb) were again sub-par, those contracts still followed bean's updraft early in the session. Harvest delays expected for early next week helped counter weekend harvest pressure today. Profit-taking ahead of the close eventually erased soybean & corn gains, but wheat rallied into the end of the session. Dec corn was unchanged today, Jan soybeans closed 3c lower, & Dec CBOT wheat settled 725c higher. For the week Dec corn rebounded 23.5c, Jan soybeans rallied 36c & Dec wheat jumped 41.75c.
In overnight export news, Japan bought 2.792 mb of US wheat & .772 mb of Australian wheat for December shipment--its smallest regular purchase total since May 28th. S Korea purchased 6.496 mb of optional-origin corn for Feb-April delivery, but passed on an additional 2.021 mb corn tender. Looking ahead to Monday, Trade analysts expect USDA to report US soybean harvest at about 90% completed & corn harvest at about 50% done. The National Oilseed Processors Assn is due to report October soybean crush by its members on Monday morning. Average guess expects about 139.1 mb were processed.
Today's USDA Weekly Export Sales showed that corn & wheat sales are still struggling, but that bean & soy product sales continue to run far above the averages needed to reach USDA targets. Although cumulative sales are not too bad, corn sales made since Sept 3 have become the 4th slowest since 1980. For perspective, final corn exports in those three similarly slow early season sales years ultimately averaged only 1,689 mb--far below the 2,100 mb USDA sees for 2009-10. Wheat sales are even worse. Cumulative wheat sales thru early November are only 1.8 mb above the worst level seen since 1979 as Black Sea-origin wheat takes away export business. By contrast, cumulative soybean sales have now reached 906.9 mb--276 mb above the previous high for early November--as sales to China remain torrid. China booked an additional 35.317 mb of US beans last week.
Locally, corn & soybean basis was steady on Friday, but wheat basis slid 5c lower. Fueled by a combination of CBOT strength & a sharp decline in barge freight costs, spot corn soared 49c higher, soybeans surged 52c, & cash wheat rallied 48c this week.
Plan to join us at the Top Ag Annual Meeting on Tuesday, Nov 17th at the American Legion Hall in Albers. Dinner begins at 6:30 pm & the shareholders meeting starts at 7:30 pm. We hope to see you there!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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