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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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11-16-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Stocks, metals, energy contracts & grains rallied early Monday morning as the dollar sagged to a fresh 15-month low. When Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke indicated in an 11 am speech that the Fed is closely monitoring the greenback, the US dollar mounted a brief rally that sent grains & other commodities reeling to intra-day lows. Bernanke's observation that US economic recovery & employment growth would probably remain tepid & interest rates would need to stay low for quite some time eventually led to renewed selling in the dollar & buying of everything else. Although soybeans had some supportive export & crush news this morning, corn & wheat had little other than weather for support. Dec corn futures retested last week's high & closed 11.75c higher--its first close above $4 in 3-1/2 weeks. Jan soybeans surged both early & late in the session to settle 23c higher. Dec CBOT wheat soared 23.25c higher to close at its highest since Aug 4.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Assn reported they crushed 155.262 mb of soybeans in October--far above the 139.1 mb average trade analyst guess, 47.883 mb more than in Sept, 11.865 mb above Oct 2008 & the first year-on-year crush increase since May 2008. Soymeal exports were 20.8% above last year--helping demand. Although end-Oct soyoil stocks were 16.2% above last year, they were just 1% higher for the month--suggesting soyoil exports were quite high in October. Soybean export inspections of 59.845 mb were also at the high-end of estimates last week. China took 33.366 mb, but shipments to other customers were also solid. Inspections of corn (21.937 mb) & wheat (15.047 mb) were again sub-par, however. Despite lagging demand, corn appears to be supported by harvest delays. Poor soft red winter wheat exports are being countered by weather-influenced SRW wheat acreage cuts.
This afternoon's USDA Weekly Crop Progress data estimated US corn harvest at 54% completed & bean harvest 89% done. Traders had expected harvest completion at 50-55% on corn & about 90% on soybeans. Southwestern Illinois corn harvest was pegged at 88% shelled--36% above the state rate. SW Illinois beans were estimated at 85% harvested--5% below the Illinois pace. USDA estimates 90% of US winter wheat & 77% of Illinois wheat was seeded as of Sunday.
Basis levels were mixed this afternoon as barge freight costs stabilized. Locally, corn basis was 2c lower, bean basis was steady, & wheat basis improved 6c. Clients report that rapid harvest progress has been made during November, but that most have curtailed their wheat plantings by 50% or more.
Plan to attend the Top Ag Annual Meeting on Tuesday, Nov 17th at the American Legion Hall in Albers. Dinner begins at 6:30 pm & the shareholders meeting starts at 7:30 pm. We hope to see you there!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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