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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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11-17-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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With corn progress at a 30-year-low of only 54% harvested, 11% of the 2009 US soybean crop still facing additional rain-delayed harvest, & 1/3 of the nation's soft red winter wheat crop still not yet sown, speculators added risk premiums back into grain prices on Tuesday. The gains came despite strength in the US dollar which reversed the losses it posted on Monday. A prediction by German analyst Oil World that dry weather in Argentina is leading to planting delays & yield losses there & lingering talk of strong soybean demand after Monday's big crush & export inspections data underpinned soybeans futures. USDA's announcement that 8.267 mb of US corn had been sold to Mexico helped sustain corn prices. Corn may have been limited by hedge pressure since the NW Corn Belt missed the rainfall that has been centered over the southern Plains & Mississippi River Valley so far this week. Wheat again found support as investors bet that 2010 crop would be smaller than this year. Dec corn futures edged 1/4c lower on Tuesday, Jan soybeans surged 19.5c higher to its highest close since Aug 12th, & Dec CBOT jumped 12.5c to its highest close since Aug 3rd.
Local basis levels for nearby delivery firmed 10.5c for corn & wheat this afternoon & soybean basis rallied 1.5c. With the Delta corn harvest wrapped up & soybean harvest along the Mississippi River stalled at least into late week, demand for barge freight sagged sharply lower on Tuesday, bolstering nearby cash bids. Even where field conditions allow it, corn harvest remains sluggish as corn is still much wetter than normal & elevator dryers in the Corn Belt struggle to keep up. Up to 20% of the US corn crop could still be in the field on Dec 1st this year.
Just a reminder! The Top Ag Annual Meeting is tonight, Tuesday, Nov 17th at the American Legion Hall in Albers. Dinner begins at 6:30 pm & the shareholders meeting starts at 7:30 pm. We hope to see you there!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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