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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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11-25-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be closed on Thursday, Nov. 26th for Thanksgiving. We will resume normal hours on Friday, 8:00 am-5:00 pm. Your friends at Top Ag wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving!
Closing Comments: 11/25/09
The US dollar sagged 1.1% to its lowest level since August 7, 2008 on Wednesday, sparking renewed investor interest in commodities. Gold soared to new records highs & crude oil, copper & grain futures surged as speculators poured more money into those markets. The dollar was pummeled after investors viewed as inflationary Federal Reserve comments that improved US growth prospects needed low interest rates to be sustained. Market sentiment was also supported by reports that weekly initial jobless claims of 466,000 fell to their lowest since Sept 13, 2008, that continuing unemployment claims dipped to their lowest since Feb 28, 2009, that personal income rose by 0.2%, personal spending jumped by 0.7%, & the savings rate dipped to 4.8%. The data hinted consumers are becoming less fearful & more willing to spend. Grains also got a boost from seasonal patterns which often see soybeans rise the day before Thanksgiving. Corn & wheat extended overnight gains & closed firmly. Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged, but also closed with strength. Dec corn settled with a top-range 16c gain, Jan beans ended with a top-range 8.5c gain, & Dec CBOT wheat rebounded to an upper-range 17.25c gain.
The Census Bureau reported that US processors crushed 163.063 mb of soybeans during October--49.739 mb above the Sept rate, 12.985 mb above last year, & the highest monthly crush since Dec 2008. Because average guess had foreseen crush at 163.7 mb & end-October soymeal stocks were well above the average guess, markets initially reacted negatively to the report. In other news, Iraq bought 3.674 mb of US hard red winter wheat & Japan purchased 3.16 mb of US wheat & .772 mb of Canadian wheat. Egypt bought 2.204 mb of French wheat & 8.818 mb of Russian wheat today--rejecting US offers. Surging ocean freight costs continue to give European & Black Sea sellers a big advantage to Africa.
Mostly dry weather will be seen for the bulk of the Midwest until early next week when the next system arrives with colder temps. The best (worst?) chance of moisture looks to be from the Ohio River Valley southward into the Delta & Southeast. Although the northwestern Corn Belt has the best harvest weather over the next ten days, wet corn is still hampering harvest there.
Locally, corn basis recovered Tuesday's 7c loss today. Soybean basis edged a penny lower & wheat basis was steady. Thus far, the best Nov/Dec basis bids came as harvest was being delayed in late Oct/early Nov. Recent harvest progress refilled the pipeline & prompted Gulf traders to back off basis bids.
The directors, management & staff of your Top Ag Cooperative wish to extend our best wishes for a happy Thanksgiving to you & your family. We feel blessed to serve you and all our patron members. Thanks! We'll be back at your service on Friday as harvest resumes.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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