Market News
Click here for the
Weather, Futures,
Real-Time Quotes,
Research, and more...
Home
Management Team
Mgmt Notes / News
Market Commentary
Daily Grain Prices
Locations
Services:
>Trucking
>Feed
>Agronomy
>Grain Dept.
>Lumber Dept.
Weather
Classifieds
History of Top-Ag
Board of Directors
Useful Links
Admin Page
Would you like market prices sent to your cell phone daily? We can text the markets to you 3 times a day to help keep you aware of market direction.
And it’s FREE!!
Contact Scott, Mike, or Seth at 618-243-5293 to get set up.
|
|
Archived Market Commentaries:
|
Date:
|
11-27-09
|
|
Headline:
|
Closing Grain Comments
|
|
Comments:
|
We will again be operating with extended harvest hours this weekend. Here's our schedule.
At Addieville, Okawville, St Libory: Sat 8 am-5 pm; Sunday Noon-5 pm.
At Pierron: Sat 8 am-5 pm; Sunday ???
At Trenton: Sat 8 am-5 pm; Sunday ???
Sunday's operating hours at Pierron & Trenton have not yet been finalized. Please call those facilities Saturday afternoon for Sunday's schedule.
Closing Comments: 11/27/09
News that a Dubai-based conglomerate with close United Arab Emirate government ties was asking for debt forbearance spooked world traders, prompting buying of the US dollar as a safe-haven investment on Thursday. Because "sell the dollar" has been immensely active trade since March, the unwinding of long commodity vs short dollar trades on Thursday night sent Asian stocks, US stock futures, gold, crude oil, industrial metals & grain futures tumbling. Traders remember how problems in Thailand spilled over to create an Asian financial panic a decade ago. No trader wants to be the last to exit thru a narrow trading room "door" when there's "fire," so the reaction was sharp. Cooler heads began to prevail by the time the CBOT day session opened. Traders assumed that oil-rich Abu Dhabi would eventually bail out its Dubai city-state UAE partner, & stocks, commodities, & energy contracts settled well off their overnight lows. Strong weekly export sales also aided grain futures recovery, & most contracts closed near their session highs. Dec corn futures settled 5.25c higher & 18.25c above overnight lows. Jan soybeans edged 1.5c lower, but 32c above its worst overnight trade. Dec CBOT wheat also closed 1.5c weaker, but 28.25c above its Asian session bottom. For the week, Dec corn gained 6.25c, Jan beans rallied 7c higher, & Dec wheat lost 11c. Grains continue to show price resilience despite forecasts for near-record crop size.
This morning's holiday-delayed USDA Weekly Export Sales data were at the top of guesses for corn (64.031 mb vs 15.7-30.5 mb expected), soybeans (38.959 mb vs 29.4-40.4 mb), soymeal (226,600 vs 150,000-250,000 mt) & soyoil 19,100 mt vs 5,000-20,000) but again very modest for wheat (14.462 mb vs 11.0-20.2 mb). Corn sales were a marketing year high, & boosted by previously announced sales of 26.156 mb of old-crop & 13.881 mb of new-crop corn to Mexico. Soybean sales were again huge with China buying 31.589 mb. Reports that the European Union was close to approving another GMO corn variety was seen as paving the way to resumption of soybean & soymeal exports to the EU. Fear of non-approved corn contamination has halted US soy exports to Europe since summer. Even so, US soybean, soymeal & soyoil exports sales remain by far the largest ever for mid-November. By contrast, cumulative US wheat sales are just 2.8 mb above the worst pace in at least 30 years. Continuing a dismal trend, only .445 mb of US soft red winter wheat was sold for export last week. SRW wheat sales have been getting worse--not better.
Looking ahead to Monday, we expect USDA to report US corn harvest progress at 78-82% completed & soybean harvest at about 97% done. Holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders data will also be released on Monday. Weather-wise, the NW Corn Belt will have mostly favorable harvest conditions thru Dec 10th, but rain delays will be seen by Sunday from Arkansas into the eastern Corn Belt.
Nearby corn & wheat basis levels were unchanged on Friday afternoon as barge freight was steady, but bean basis improved 6c. With rain again in the forecast by Sunday, many farmers are choosing to bring wet corn to town to speed the end of harvest. For the week, cash corn jumped 7c, nearby soybeans gained 6c higher, & spot wheat declined 6c.
Fall fertilizer & winter annual weed control applications can save valuable time next spring, & may save you money, too. Contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton or Pierron for all your fertilizer & weed control needs.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
|
|
|
