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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-2-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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The US dollar recovered some of Tuesday's losses, crude oil dove 2.3% lower on unexpectedly high inventories, & grains were hit with follow-thru profit-taking on Wednesday. Unlike Friday, Monday & Tuesday sessions, new money proved to be scarce after today's open. The latest shake out started Tuesday when soybeans failed to hold on to fresh 6-month highs & corn & wheat couldn't exceed their November price highs. With market news quiet, today's down moves were exacerbated. Continued corn harvest in the rain-free NW Corn Belt also provided steady selling pressure during the session. March corn & CBOT wheat futures each ended the day down 8c, & Jan beans lost 25.5c on Wednesday. Most grain contracts sagged to low range closes.
After the close, Egypt tendered for optional-origin wheat cargoes for Feb 1-15 shipment. Results should be announced on Thursday morning, but Egypt has bypassed US wheat in favor of European & Russian wheat in most recent tenders. USDA will release its Weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Trade analysts expect that data to show sales for the week ending Nov 26th for corn at 15.7-35.4 mb, beans at 23.9-36.7 mb, wheat at 11.0-18.4 mb, soymeal at 150,000-200,000 tonnes, & soyoil at 15,000-40,000 tonnes. Weekly wheat sales must exceed 17.3 mb to prevent cumulative commitments from being their worst since at least 1979. This afternoon's USDA Weekly Hatchery data indicated the nation's chicken producers put 2% fewer broiler-type eggs in incubators & placed 1% fewer broiler chicks on feed in the week ending Nov 28. Although 4% fewer broilers have been placed since Jan 1, weekly placements since mid-October have declined just 0.9% compared to last year. Improving feed demand from the poultry sector is especially important for domestic soymeal usage.
Basis levels at the Gulf were mixed today as elevators there switched from the Dec futures to March corn & wheat contracts for their nearby bids. Locally, corn basis declined 6c, bean basis improved 3c, & wheat basis was steady. River terminals continue to handle forced movement from interior elevators. Many NW Corn Belt country elevators are full & restricting operating hours as their grain dryers struggle to cope with wet, light test weight corn.
Do you have non-GMO corn or soybeans or other specialty grain varieties that may be eligible for direct ship programs? Give Mike a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & let him know what varieties & quantities you have available. He'll keep you informed of what marketing programs develop. Fall fertilizer & winter annual weed control applications can save valuable time next spring, & may save you money, too. Contact your local Top Ag Agronomy Center at Okawville, Trenton or Pierron for all your fertilizer & weed control needs.
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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