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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-11-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Reports of better than expected Nov US retail sales & improvement in consumer sentiment spurred strength in the US dollar this morning, & that sent grains lower along with crude oil & gold on today's open. When corn found support a few cents below Thursday's close, speculative buyers took control. Corn was supported after Thursday's reports by the reality that most of the projected US corn carryover was still in the field as of last weekend. The prospect that the mid-week storm probably caused enough loss to offset the sluggish pace of exports eventually fueled a pre-weekend rally. Charts have been hinting a short-term low was due, &--at least for corn--the Thursday-Friday recovery seemed to deliver on that promise. Soybeans & wheat mostly followed corn today. News that China bought another 8.524 mb of US soybeans was mostly offset by favorable S American weather forecasts early in the session. When corn pushed higher at mid-morning, beans & wheat came off their lows, too. March corn futures settled with a top-range 11.5c gain on Friday, Jan beans settled 8c higher, & March CBOT wheat edged 1/2c higher. Weekly corn charts rallied 15.5c, beans dropped 8c, & nearby wheat declined 17.5c for the week as congestion support levels were probed.
This afternoon's CFTC Commitments of Traders reports confirmed suspicions that speculative funds have been trimming back some of their extremely large grain ownership. That's not unusual heading into the end of the year. Markets tend to quiet down into the holidays as firms lock in gains & try to reduce their risk. Looking ahead to Monday, traders expect USDA Weekly Crop Progress data to show corn at 90-94% completed. Portions of the Dakotas & central & southern Illinois were back in the field on Thursday & will have decent harvest conditions thru the weekend. By Monday, another frontal system arrives with light precipitation potential. By late next week, some extended computer models warn of a more ominous storm.
Locally, corn basis was steady, but bean basis jumped 5c & wheat surged sharply higher this afternoon. China has shown an unwavering appetite for US beans this week, & that is firming up Mississippi River basis. Look for bean basis to continue tightening into January as exporters seek to meet commitments for Jan-Feb shipment.
Would you like CBOT futures prices sent to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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