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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-14-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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After having been pressured overnight by weak crude oil trends, soybeans led the other grains to a quick rebound from their e-trade losses this morning. Soybeans surged shortly after the day session report after National Oilseed Processors Assn members reported their largest November bean crush in history. Beans maintained those gains after USDA reported another week of huge soybean export inspections. Strong bean prices helped underpin corn & wheat as traders are already talking about a fight for spring acreage. March corn futures gained 4c, Jan beans galloped 20c higher, & March CBOT wheat rallied 6c today.
NOPA members reported Nov soybean crush at 160.259 mb--about 7 mb above trade analyst expectations, 5 mb above October's total, & 20.8 mb more than last year. Foreign demand fueled the increase as Nov soymeal exports were nearly double last year. Adding to the strong demand picture, last week's USDA soybean inspections totaled 53.608 mb. China took 42.934 mb of the US beans last week, far exceeding shipments to the Netherlands (2.844 mb), Turkey (2.297 mb) & Mexico (2.008 mb). Cumulative soybean inspections since Sept 1st have reached 598.9 mb--166.3 mb above last year's total. By contrast, inspections of corn (28.088 mb) & wheat (13.035 mb) were at the low end of guesses. Just .774 mb of soft red winter wheat was inspected last week. Year-to-date corn inspections are only 1.5 mb ahead of last year & cumulative wheat inspections are 185 mb behind last season.
In its Weekly Crop Progress report, USDA indicated this afternoon that 92% of the US corn crop has now been harvested--up 4% for the week. All the top 8 producing states made limited progress last week: Iowa (96%, +2), Illinois (90%, +5), Nebraska (91%, +3), Minnesota (91%, +4), Indiana (96%, +5), S Dakota (82%, +9), Kansas (96%, +2) & Ohio (98%, +4). In SW Illinois, USDA pegged corn harvest at 95% completed. Nationwide, about a billion bushels of corn are still unharvested. Fields that received a foot of snow last week from SE Nebraska thru Iowa & Wisconsin may still be harvesting corn for months!
Dec CBOT grain futures expired at noon, setting up downward targets on weekly charts at $3.95 on corn & $5.29 on wheat for the March contracts to test. That said, recent gains argue that short-term lows have been set in corn & beans.
Basis levels were mixed this afternoon. Locally, corn basis levels weakened 1c as harvest continues to flow to the river system, but bean basis firmed a penny as there is still a huge appetite for soybean exports that must be filled over the next 3 months. Wheat basis was steady today.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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