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And it’s FREE!!
Contact Scott, Mike, or Seth at 618-243-5293 to get set up.
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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-18-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be open Monday, Dec 21 thru Wednesday, Dec 23 from 8 am-4:30 pm & on Thursday, Dec 24 from 8:00 am-noon. We will be closed next Friday, Dec 25 for the holiday. We wish you & your family a Joyous Christmas!
The pre-Holiday squeeze on short dollar positions led to additional liquidation on Friday of grain positions. Soybeans were under pressure from the open as traders exited long positions on the dollar's strength. Wheat found support above Thursday's lows, triggering short-covering as speculators liquidated long corn & long bean/short wheat spread positions. Caught between rising wheat prices--which would reduce its competitiveness as a feed grain--& falling bean values--which might encourage more corn acreage next spring--corn prices went nowhere. Mid-morning final 2009 crop projections & 2010 acreage forecasts by Informa Economics kept corn & beans under pressure. Informa forecast final US corn production at 12,968 mb--47 mb above USDA's November estimate--on yield of 164.5 bu/ac. The firm reduced its 2009 harvested corn acreage estimate by 450,000 ac to reflect losses in the Northern Corn Belt. Informal pegged US bean output at 3,422 mb--103 mb above USDA's November forecast--on yield of 44.7 bu/ac. The forecasts limited corn rallies, but weighed on bean prices the balance of the session. March corn futures settled 3/4c higher, Jan beans dropped 10c, & March CBOT wheat rallied 9.5c on Friday. For the week March corn lost 6.75c, Jan beans declined 23.25c, & March CBOT wheat dropped 9.5c. The US dollar rallied 2.1% this week to clearly break above 9-month downtrending weekly chart resistance.
USDA announced 4.262 mb of 2010-11 soybeans were sold to China this morning, but the fact it was for new-crop beans limited the bullish impact. Near-record imports of US soybeans in Dec-Feb threaten to swamp crushers in China with supplies, according to one think-tank there. With rainfall forecast this weekend in Argentina & dry weather seen in southern Brazil, weather continues to be favorable for early season growth in South America.
This afternoon's monthly USDA Cattle-on-Feed data indicated that feedlots were feeding 1% fewer cattle on December 1st, placed 8% fewer feeder cattle in November, & marketed 4% more cattle during November than in 2008. The report was friendly for cattle prices--but negative for feed use. Analysts had expected 0.2% more cattle on feed, 5.5% fewer Nov placements, & 2.2% higher Nov marketings.
Corn & wheat basis were unchanged this afternoon, but soybean basis rebounded 5c. For the week, cash corn dropped 14c, beans lost 27c, & wheat declined 9c.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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