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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-22-09
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Headline:
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Closing Bids & Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be open & Wednesday, Dec 23 from 8 am-4:30 pm & on Thursday, Dec 24 from 8:00 am-noon. We will be closed this Friday, Dec 25 for the holiday. We wish you & your family a Joyous Christmas!
After having shown some modest strength in the overnight session as the dollar weakened, grains opened in line with overnight trends. A rebound in the US dollar to new 3-month highs soon weighed on grains, however. When soybeans dipped below Monday’s lows, chart-based sell-stops were triggered that sent soybeans reeling on speculative liquidation. Corn & wheat followed beans lower, but mostly recovered by day’s end as some long soybean/short corn & short wheat inter-commodity spreads were exited. Speculators still own a large net long soybean position as Jan soy contracts near first notice day. As chart support gets bent—if not broken—specs find more reason to liquidate long positions, adding further selling pressure. Corn again found support on Tuesday from index fund rebalancing & worries the approaching winter storm would further imperil unharvested corn. Wheat closed higher by day’s end after buyers emerged near chart support. March corn futures settled 1.25c lower, Jan beans dropped 10c, & March wheat gained 3.5c on Tuesday.
Corn & wheat markets mostly ignored another weak USDA grain inspections report today, but soybeans struggled to recover after the report. USDA reported corn inspections at 17.765 mb—well below trade expectations that ranged 27-33 mb. Corn inspections now trail last year’s pace—481.5 mb vs 493.0 mb. Unlike previous weeks, soybean inspections also were modest at 29.913 mb—below guesses that ranged 35-52 mb. China took 16.725 mb with Indonesia (2.47 mb),the Netherlands (2.45 mb), Mexico (2.386 mb) & S Korea (2.06 mb) other major destinations. Despite record-high export sales commitments & shipments, many analysts remain concerned that the Chinese will cancel & shift some of their massive US purchases to South America this spring if crops there prove record-large & cheaper than US supplies. Wheat export inspections remained sluggish last week at just 13.285 mb—at the low end of 12-19 mb expectations. Only 1.176 mb of Soft red wheat was inspected last week. Year-to-date wheat inspections are 184 mb below last year.
After the close USDA reported US corn harvest at 95% completed—up 3% for the week & near trade expectations. Among the major Midwestern States slight progress was seen in Iowa (98%, +2), Illinois (95%, +5), Indiana (98%, +2) & Ohio(99%, +1). The impact of the first major winter storm was still being seen in Nebraska (93%, +2), Minnesota (93%, +2),S Dakota (88%, +6), Wisconsin (88%, +3)& N Dakota (68%, +8). In Illinois, 99% of the corn was harvested in SW & SE Illinois, but 21% of the NE Illinois corn was still in the field as of Sunday.
Locally, basis levels were steady on Tuesday.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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