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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-24-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments: 12/24/09
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be open Monday, Dec 28 thru Wednesday, Dec 30 from 8 am-4:30 pm & on Thursday, Dec 31 from 8:00 am-noon. We will be closed next Friday, Dec 31 for the New Years Day.
Weather-driven harvest completion concerns, strong export sales & supportive trends in outside markets attracted more speculative buying into corn markets in Thursday’s holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session. Corn prices rallied right into the close. Soybeans were strong early in the trading session very solid weekly export sales report, but were hit with profit-taking at mid-morning. Prices wavered thereafter on either side of $10 as futures clung to the closest strike price for expiring January soybean options. Soybeans continue be limited by expectations for big South American crop potential, but underpinned by historic year-to-date soybeans usage. Wheat prices faltered on Thursday after weekly export sales were reported at a marketing year low. Higher corn prices & lower trends in the US dollar were not enough to pull wheat upward. Wheat spent the week hovering above lows set in early November & below the previous week’s lows. March corn futures settled 3.75c higher on Thursday, Jan beans edged 1.75c lower, & March CBOT wheat declined 4.5c. For the week March corn rose 10.75c, Jan beans declined 12.25c, & March CBOT wheat dropped 3.5c.
USDA’s Weekly Export Sales data reported a second straight market-year high for corn sales, very strong weekly sales for soybeans, but a marketing–year low sales week for wheat. Corn sales reached 62.666 mb with Mexico, Japan & Taiwan taking about ¾ of the total. Corn sales need to sustain recent trends to reach USDA projections. Soybean sales of 43.93 mb of old- & 6.375 mb of new-crop were again dominated by China which grabbed about half the 2009/10 sales & all the 2010/11 total. Wheat sales were just 8.131 mb with Japan accounting for about 1/3 of the total. Only 841,000 bu of soft red winter wheat were sold last week. Last week’s dismal export sales were made even more disappointing by the fact that wheat price traded at a 6-week low & still couldn’t attract new buyers.
Looking ahead, markets resume normal trading hours with Sunday night’s e-trade session, but will again trade with reduced hours on Thursday & be closed on Friday. Heavy snowfall in the Plains & northern Corn Belt will keep late corn harvest there in slow motion, while flooding threats will put farmers in southern Illinois & the Delta on alert in coming days. For the holiday-shortened week cash corn rose 6c, nearby soy beans lost 10c, & spot wheat prices declined 13c.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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