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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-30-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be open from 8 am-noon on Thursday, Dec 31st. We will be closed Friday, Jan 1st for New Years Day. We wish you a Prosperous New Year!
Year-end positioning dominated today's light volume trading session. Soybean traded on both sides of unchanged, supported by news that China had purchased 12.786 mb of US beans but limited by long liquidation ahead of Thursday's first notice day deliveries on January soy futures, modest strength in the US dollar & continued favorable weather in South America. Corn spent the entire session on the defensive. March corn futures plunged a dime in less than one minute--& recovered just as quickly--about 9:44 am today. Rumors that a trader had mistakenly sold 8000 contracts instead of 800 lots on the electronic platform--called a "fat finger error" by traders--caused a brief stir in corn. Wheat was higher for most of today's session, supported by short-covering. Many traders expect index funds will be committing new money into buying commodities in 2010. Although crude oil is often the biggest portion of many commodity index portfolios, wheat, corn & soybeans are often included in those index investments, too. March corn futures settled 3.25c lower, Jan beans closed 1.75c weaker, & March CBOT wheat gained 3.75c higher.
After the close USDA released its quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. December 1 hog inventories were pegged at 98.0% of 2008--0.4% above average pre-report guess. The breeding herd was reported at 96.5% of last year--0.1% above expectations. Market hog inventories were indicated at 98.2% of last year--0.5% higher than forecast. USDA indicated that producers saved 9.70 pigs per litter in Sept-Nov--equal to the record-high rate set in June-August. The extra 0.2 pig per litter offset the 1.8% fewer sows that farrowed during the quarter, allowing the fall pig crop to exceed 2008 by .22%. Because it showed less liquidation than traders had expected, the report was considered slightly bearish for hog futures on Thursday.
Egypt bid for optional-origin wheat for mid-March shipment this afternoon with results expected tomorrow morning. Black Sea & European-origin wheat have won most of the recent Egyptian business--the world's largest wheat importer. USDA will release its Weekly Export Sales report on Thursday. Trade analysts see sales of corn at 19.7-35.4 mb, beans at 25.7-47.8 mb, & wheat at 7.3-20.2 mb. Soy product exports are seen at 150,000-300,000 mt for soymeal & at 10,000-25,000 mt for soyoil.
Locally, basis levels were mixed this afternoon with corn basis steady, bean basis 4c higher, & wheat basis 2c weaker.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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