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Would you like market prices sent to your cell phone daily? We can text the markets to you 3 times a day to help keep you aware of market direction.
And it’s FREE!!
Contact Scott, Mike, or Seth at 618-243-5293 to get set up.
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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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12-31-09
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Top Ag elevators will be closed Friday, Jan 1st for New Years Day. We wish you a Prosperous New Year! Next week, we are open Monday-Friday, 8:00-4:30 pm.
After having traded most of the session with a higher bias, soybeans led corn & wheat to end-session weakness as grains closed the year mixed. Soybeans spent most of the day trading solidly higher after this morning's weekly export sales report was again very robust. Corn & wheat borrowed some of that strength for much of the day, but weakened when beans came off their highs during the noon hour. This entire holiday-shortened week has been dominated by positioning for the New Year. Expectations that index funds will be buying commodities at the start of the year provided underlying support. On Friday, March corn futures were 3/4c lower, Jan beans settled 3.5c higher, & March CBOT wheat declined 3.25c. For the week, March corn settled 6c higher & at the highest end-week close since June 12th. Jan beans rebounded from last week's sell-off to surge 40.25c higher to a 4-week weekly chart high close. March wheat recovered 17c to push weekly charts to a 5-week end-week peak.
Compared to the end of 2008, corn closed 7.5c higher, beans were 67.5c higher, & wheat was 69.25c lower. If index funds keep the same dollar-value percentages dedicated to each grain in 2010 as in 2009, they would buy more wheat, own just slightly less corn, & own fewer beans when they rebalance their portfolios in 2010. The unknown factor: How much more new money will flow to commodities? Directionally-oriented speculators bet this week that there will be net buying across the board early in January.
This morning's Weekly Export Sales data was near trade expectations. USDA reported sales of corn at 30.415 mb (vs 19.7-35.4 mb expected), total old- & new-crop soybeans at 39.495 mb (vs 25.7-47.8 mb foreseen), & wheat at 13.606 mb (vs 7.3-20.2 mb guessed). Soymeal sales of 287,600 mt were near the top of 150,000-300,000 mt expectations, but sales of soyoil (1,500 mt vs 10,000-25,000 mt guessed) were disappointing. Soybean & soy products export commitments remain far higher than ever before. By contrast, sales of wheat are the worst in at least 35 years. Only 1.154 mb of US soft red winter wheat were sold last week, mostly to Mexico (.746 mb). Egypt bought 8.818 mb of Russian wheat & none from the US or Europe in an overnight tender--a reminder that Black Sea supplies continue to be stiff competition for US SRW wheat exports. US wheat offers delivered to Egyptian ports were about $1/bu higher than the winning Russian prices. Don't look for the US to get much North African business anytime soon unless US wheat prices fall off a cliff or Russia runs out. Corn export sales also continue to be sub-par. Using past sales averages as a guide, corn sales are on pace to reach just 1869-1940 mb--well below the current 2,050 mb USDA export forecast. Sluggish Gulf corn basis argues that poor corn exports could offset upper Midwest corn harvest losses.
Locally, basis was mixed to end the year. Corn basis was unchanged today, bean basis slid a penny, & wheat basis edged a penny higher. For the week, cash corn rose 8c, cash soybeans gained 40c, & spot wheat rallied 16c.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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