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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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Jan 5, 2010
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Mirroring trends in outside markets, grains traded quietly on Tuesday, consolidating within yesterday's trading ranges. Bitterly cold temps continued to both hamper movement of grain off the farm & limit barge activity, supporting basis levels along the Mississippi & Ohio Rivers. With index funds due to rebalance their commodity portfolios starting this Friday, traders were understandably reluctant to aggressively sell grains. But expectations for big crops in South America amid sluggish export demand also gave traders little reason to be forceful buyers, either. As has recently been the case, grains rallied early & late in the session, but spent the rest of the day trading sideways/lower. March corn futures settled 1/4c higher, March soybeans gained 3c, & March CBOT wheat dropped 4.75c.
Two-sided trading in the US dollar, crude oil & gold provided little direction for grains as demand news continued to be subdued. Taiwan bought 1.606 mb of US bread wheat last night. South Korea announced it will seek 2.165 mb of optional-origin feed corn on Wednesday for April delivery. Taiwan will tender for .472 mb of US corn & .845 mb of US soybeans for Feb-March shipment on Wednesday & up to 2.362 mb of Brazilian or US corn for Feb-March shipment on Friday. Rumors that China has overbooked its soybean needs from the US continued to circulate, but that was mostly offset by skepticism that South American soybean output will equal USDA's record-large forecasts.
Local corn & bean basis surged 11c higher, but wheat basis edged 1c lower on Tuesday. Below-zero Midwestern temps have created icing conditions & restricted barge traffic in Peoria Lake region of the Illinois River to one-way traffic this week. Other portions of the River may soon be closed altogether as temps remain 12-20 degrees below normal. Barge freight rates on the Illinois have climbed 7c/bu since late last week when frigid weather first moved into the region. Since St Louis freight rates have remained stable during that time, the short-term value of grain originated from St Louis & on the Ohio River has gotten a boost.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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