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Archived Market Commentaries:
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Date:
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Jan. 13, 2010
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Headline:
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Closing Grain Comments
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Comments:
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Soybeans found support on Wednesday above Tuesday's lows as soymeal end-users aggressively priced their needs. Spillover pressure from Tuesday's limit-down move sent corn sharply lower early in today's session, but steady intra-day gains in soybeans eventually encouraged bottom-pickers to buy corn, too. Wheat followed corn throughout the session, falling to double-digit losses before recovering to small gains. Late session buying tied to index funds pushed all the grains to top-range closes. March corn settled 8.5c lower, but 16c above the 3-month lows set at 9:44 am. March soybeans jumped 14.5c higher, closing 21c above its opening lows. March CBOT wheat gained 1.25c today, closing 17.75c above its early session low.
Export interest picked up after Tuesday's sharp decline in CBOT futures. USDA announced this morning that Japan bought 4.20 mb of US corn & another 4.567 mb of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Taiwan also purchased .905 mb of corn & .441 mb of beans from the US overnight. Tonight, Taiwan will seek up to 2.204 mb of US or Brazilian beans & Japan is looking for 2.572 mb of US wheat & .772 mb from Canada. The US also had some export disappointments. Egypt again bypassed US supplies to purchase 4.409 mb of wheat from Russia & 2.204 mb from Kazakhstan this morning. And S Korea bought 2.021 mb of feed wheat overnight, avoiding US corn. Failures to sell wheat to Egypt & corn to S Korea have been features behind slow US export sales this season.
Looking ahead to Thursday, USDA grain export data for the week ending Jan 7th is expected to report sales at 9.8-27.6 mb for corn, 22.0-31.2 mb for soybeans & 5.5-11.0 mb for wheat. The National Oilseed Processors Assn. will also report its members' December soybean crush results tomorrow morning. Spurred by strong soy product export demand, trade analysts foresee NOPA crush near 161.1 mb with guesses ranging 157-163 mb. According to the Census Bureau, US soybean crush hit a record-high 168.607 mb in November. December crush could also approach that level.
Locally, corn basis improved 2c, soybean basis was steady & wheat basis improved a penny today. Grain sales by farmers have dwindled since Tuesday morning even as domestic & foreign end-users advance coverage on recent price drop. The upcoming warming trend will help Illinois River conditions improve, but St Louis will remain the more favored location to originate Midwestern grain for the next several weeks.
Would you like CBOT futures prices reported to your phone? Top Ag can send you nearby & harvest futures prices for corn, soybeans & wheat at 9:45 am, 11:15 am & 1:45 pm each day. We provide the service for free, but you may have to pay for text messages--depending upon your phone plan. Give Scott, Mike or Seth a call at the Okawville elevator at 243-5293 & we'll get you set up!
"Closing Comments" are written by David Marshall, Toay Commodities Futures Group LLC, Nashville, IL. To learn more about his farm marketing advisory or commodity brokerage services, contact him at dmarshall@tcfg-llc.com or call (618) 327-4370 (voice/fax) or (618) 314-0918 (cell). This commentary is not intended for specific trading strategies. We strive to insure this information is reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks. You should fully understand those risks before trading.
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